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What did you know about the xG score?

How to count xG?

The xG statistic has long ceased to be a secret of football clubs with seven seals. Now anyone who has the necessary data can calculate the "expected goals". There are many different models for scoring xG, but they are all based on the number and quality of shots on goal.

The main parameters of shots on goal, taken into account when calculating the xG statistics: distance to the goal, place of the shot (point on the field), the number of player touches before the shot, the part of the body that was hit.

A score is assigned to each of these indicators and the data is summed up. The output is the proportion of the created moment, that is, how dangerous the blow was for the opponent. It has become popular to compare the resulting xG indicator with other statistics of football matches. Analysis of all parameters gives a complete picture of the game.

There are many methodologies for calculating xG statistics in the world. They differ in the number of indicators taken into account related to shots on goal. For example, which pass was made before the kick, at what angle the player hit the kick. Therefore, sometimes when comparing xG indicators according to different methodologies, there may be inaccuracies.

The xG model, like football in general, does not stand still, it develops from year to year. Now they began to calculate the xGa indicator, which reflects how many dangerous moments the team can create at their gates. Or the xP indicator is the potentially scored points at the realized moments.

Why isn't xG always right?

The xG indicator has long been used not only by football analysts and coaches, but also by ordinary sports fans. In the English Premier League since the 2018/19 season, xG has been shown as one of the pre-match layouts along with the starting lineup.

Nevertheless, xG, like any other statistics, has errors and inaccuracies. It is impossible to turn dry numbers of created chances into real goals. It is impossible to take into account the strength and motivation of the opponent, the mood of the players, the correctness of the chosen tactics, the factor of a quick goal and much more. In fact, xG is just a number that gives a hint before the game, but in no way a basis for analyzing a future match. Therefore, it is necessary to use xG-statistics in football with eyes open to all other incoming data.

How to use xG in sports betting?

Betting players quickly realized the potential of xG statistics for betting. In fact, after each game, you can find out, without watching the match, how many real scoring chances have been created by each team. With the accumulation of data, xG becomes an even more interesting indicator: it is clear how much a particular club is attacking and how much it realizes its capabilities.

That is, a player, having statistics on xG, can predict the number of chances that the team will create in the upcoming match. True, no one guarantees that quantity will necessarily grow into quality.

For better use, the xG indicator in football, like any other statistic, should be considered in conjunction with many parameters. The quality of the players in the club is of decisive importance: even with low xG statistics, you can score a lot of goals if there is a good conversion. And vice versa.

Perhaps the xG model is best suited for long-term betting. Having data on the first part of the season, it is possible to predict how many goals a team will be able to score in the second part of the cycle. However, even here you should not rely entirely on xG, because anything can happen in a club - from a change in the football mentality to a replacement of a coach.